For many years, GreenTech
leaders have been saying renewables are never going to make
a major contribution to our energy needs until we have a better
method for storing off-peak clean energy. For even longer,
environmentalists and national security analysts have been
seeking an alternative to fossil oil for our transportation
needs.
RFTS Introduction.
For more than four years, we at Doty Windfuels have been working
on “RFTS”, for Renewable
Fischer Tropsch Synthesis. The process will use off-peak excess
wind energy to recycle CO2 into standard fuels that
work seamlessly in the one billion cars and trucks on the road
today around the
world. The chemistry is fundamentally simple and well understood.
First, variable off-peak energy is used to electrolyze water
into hydrogen and oxygen; some of the hydrogen is used to reduce
CO2 into CO and H2O in
a catalyzed reaction called Reverse Water Gas Shift (RWGS);
the balance of the hydrogen is combined with
the
CO in a Fischer Tropsch reactor to form a synthetic oil – a
mixture of mostly gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel, just like the
stuff from petroleum, but with no contaminants. The co-produced
oxygen from the electrolysis is a valuable by-product.
Fischer Tropsch chemistry has been well understood for seven decades. During
World War II, Germany synthesized some of its fuel by combining CO and H2 (derived
from coal) in an FT reactor. Today, this process is commonly referred to
as coal-to-liquids, or CTL. South Africa has the longest history of FTS generation
of fuels. Unfortunately, traditional coal-to-liquids production is more environmentally
destructive even than tar sands or oil-shale based petroleum because of its
enormous on-site release of CO2. However, if the H2 is obtained
from water and excess carbon-neutral energy, and the CO is derived from CO2,
the fuels
are carbon neutral, as we explain in greater detail on other pages on this
website.
There is no question that it should be possible to synthesize standard liquid
fuels from CO2 and water using off-peak clean energy. The only step that
has not been commercialized is the RWGS process – reducing CO2 to CO.
The question has not been whether such a system would work, but whether it
would
compete with traditional petroleum derived fuels.
Our analysis concludes that if the correct paths and system design are chosen,
overall system efficiency (from input electrical energy to output energy
in the liquid fuels) will exceed 58%. If done at a reasonable scale, the
synthetic
fuels will sometimes compete when oil is as low as $50/bbl – and always
when oil is above $95/bbl. After the R&D phase, the equipment capital
costs are expected to be low enough to be recovered in 2 to 3 years. Our
goal is
to develop a process that will allow the world to replace the use of petroleum
and tar sands with clean, competitive, carbon-neutral fuels synthesized efficiently
from CO2 and off-peak clean energy.
One of the team’s recent technical papers: Toward Efficient Reduction
of CO2 to CO for renewable fuels. shows that the somewhat related direct-solar-fuels
processes face daunting practical barriers because of fundamental laws of
thermodynamics governing equilibria in one or more of the required steps.
The RFTS process, on the other hand, eliminates such bottlenecks by starting
with electrical energy rather than thermal energy or photons to get the needed
hydrogen. The technology for electrolysis is mature and efficient. After
the electrolysis, there are no highly endothermic reactions, so there are
no reactions that are difficult to get to work.
The Demand for Oil. The strong upward trend of the past two
years in the price of oil is bringing gasoline prices back into
the media spotlight. We expect to be showing laboratory results
by the time the public is again insisting on solutions that show
real promise for competing with OPEC.
Windfuels provides the potential for the U.S. to transition from
the worlds largest importer of oil to the world’s largest
exporter of carbon-neutral transportation fuels.
The company is working on scaling windfuels plant designs down as small as
practical with acceptable efficiency and capital cost, since changes in the
financial markets argue that the more likely scale-up path would be thousands
of 10-MW plants though out the wind corridor rather than a much smaller number
of GW plants near large nuclear reactors. Recent simulations are showing 45%
efficiency at the 2-MW plant size, 53% at 20 MW, and 58% at 250 MW.
The Availability
of Cheap, Off-peak Clean Energy. The “Windfuels” moniker
is apt because about 99% of the inexpensive, clean, off-peak
energy that has come online in the past several years in the
U.S. has been wind, but nuclear energy may be the best option
in some places. A few facts here put the scalability, climate
benefit, and expected competitiveness of Windfuels into perspective.
•
Approximately 20 TWh (yes, 20 tera-watt-hours) of wind energy
was curtailed (idled) in the U.S. last year to keep the off-peak
grid energy price from frequently going negative. That is more
than the energy in 500 million gallons of gasoline – thrown
away. Curtailed wind energy is the U.S. appears likely to
exceed 30 TWh in 2011.
•
Economically recoverable wind energy potential in the U.S. exceeds
70 PWh/yr – enough energy to synthesize twice the current
U.S. transportation fuel needs just during the off-peak hours
at the efficiency expected.
• Point-source CO2 emissions
in the U.S. total about 4 Gt/yr – enough
to synthesize twice the current domestic transportation fuel
usage – about 0.7 Gt/yr. Windfuels are expected to
be 85% carbon neutral (fully burdened), while most domestic
biofuels
are only 5-15% carbon neutral when land-use change is fully
considered.
One of the greatest advantages
of RFTS is that the electrolyzers would be well positioned to
stabilize the grid by ramping up
or tamping down in real time to adjust to the amount of excess
energy on the grid. This will eliminate negative pricing and
curtailment, and ensure that the fuels are completely carbon-neutral
(100% of the energy entering the electrolyzers will be matched
by additional energy coming onto a grid from otherwise curtailed
renewable energy). More information can be found here.
(Note: Much of the above
appeared on GreenTechMedia on 2/2/2011,
http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/guest-post-kicking-oil-addiction-permanently-with-windfuels/
and a lively discussion followed.)
Choosing the Best
Chemical Paths. It is useful to look briefly,
in broad strokes, at some of the reasons why our synthesis choices
lead not only to the best option for a renewable fuel today,
but also for many decades to come.
There are a number of options for converting
CO2 and water into liquid fuels – and we have looked
carefully at all of them:
1. Make ethanol from biomass.
2. Make biodiesel using microalgae and solar energy.
3. Use genetically engineered cyanobacteria and solar energy to make gasoline
or butanol.
4. Use extremely concentrated solar energy (at above 1100 K) to make gasoline
and diesel from CO2 and water.
5. Inject renewable hydrogen into conventional CTL plants.
6. Use stranded wind energy to make methanol or ammonia.
7. Develop a novel RFTS process that is as efficient as possible, scalable
from 2-200 MW, that can make all the fuels and chemicals we need from CO2 and
water.
Below, we look briefly at the above options, most of which
are discussed in much more detail elsewhere on this website.
1. Ethanol from biomass.
Most of the
cellulosic ethanol plants are now failing financially, even
though they are using feedstocks
that are currently nearly free (sometimes even at negative price),
and they are getting a high price plus enormous subsidies for
their ethanol. They are generally located in areas where their
feedstocks will remain nearly free for at least several years – in
some cases even for a decade. However, the only truly competitive
use for biomass today is in home heating and co-firing in coal
power plants. The demand from these markets exceeds the total
potential biomass supply in most regions of the world by factors
ranging from 2 to 100. The global average is probably 14. That
is, the global demand for home-heating and co-firing exceeds
the total potential biomass supply by a factor of 14.
See http://dotyenergy.com/Markets/Biofuels.htm for more support
of this assessment.
When we already know that the market demand for biomass for home-heating
and co-firing could exceed the available supply by a factor of
14 within two decades – and
possibly much sooner – it is foolish to advocate making ethanol from
a feedstock that will become extremely expensive. Also, using biomass for fuel
will inevitably place upward pressure on the price of food. Both use limited
resources on this planet – land, fresh water, nutrients, and human labor.
2. Biofuels from
microalgae.
This is
undoubtedly the most distorted alternative of all. Related
research has been well supported
financially for three decades. Our analysis (beginning six years
ago, and updated at least annually) of the various approaches
using photosynthetic microalgae has concluded that photosynthetic
algae will never produce fuels for under $90/gal – except
as a co-product during the treatment of waste water. Some fuels
will be able to be made profitably from waste-water (sewage)
treatment facilities because the municipalities must pay to have
the sewage treated anyway, and it probably doesn’t cost
much more to make fuels at the same time. The amount of fuels
that can be made profitably from waste-water treatment could
supply about 0.5% of the total demand.
The most recent “official” DOE-supported study (Lawrence
Berkeley National Laboratory) thinks that photosynthetic algae
without subsidy from
waste-water treatment will eventually be produced for $10/gal. Of course, the
authors of this study have all been supported (at least to some extent) by
DOE grants for the development of fuels from algae.
The data clearly show otherwise. HRBP spent $22M and showed they could produce
fuels from microalgae for $40,000/gal. GreenFuels spent $70M and showed they
could produce fuels from algae for $200,000/gal. Maybe a few companies will
do better during the coming decade.
Algenol will spend $35M of your tax dollars (DOE plus local support) along
over $70M from partners and investors over the next few years. They claim they
will produce ethanol from a genetically modified hybrid microorganism at the
rate of 100,000 gal/yr from a 40 acre demonstration facility. The upper-level
managers of Algenol have a 25-year history of over-stating what they will achieve
by factors of 100 to 10,000.
Algenol’s CEO finally
let a useful cost number out. They are expecting their photo-bioreactors
(PBRs) in large scale production will cost $10M/ha. So if they
spend $60M on PBRs, they will be able to afford 6 ha (14.8 acre)
of PBRs. The best, credible, short-term, algae production we
have see (by Seambiotic) would produce diesel fuels at the rate
of 5400 gal/ha/yr in race-track ponds. A reasonable assumption
is that long-term production in PBRs might exceed short-term
production in ponds by 30%. If the fuel from the micro-organism
is ethanol rather than jet fuel, an additional 60% gain in production
volume might be possible. So perhaps Algenol will produce ethanol
at the rate of 67,000 gal/yr.
If they produce 65,000 gal/yr,
and if their bioreactors last 20 years, and if their operating
costs are all included in the initial estimate
of $100M total, they might be producing ethanol for $127/gal, or $200/gge
(gallon gasoline equivalent). However, we suspect their PBRs
(which are more fragile and complex than most) will only last
7 years. In which case their ethanol will cost $256/gal, or $400/gge.
Sapphire has even bigger plans. They will spend over $120M of your tax dollars
plus at least $300M of investor’s dollars over the next 4 to 6 years.
They might be producing 250,000 gal/yr by 2016 from the initial 400 acres being
developed. If their facility then produces steadily with relatively low operating
and maintenance costs for 20 years, the fuels they produce will cost about
$160/gal. However, with likely O&M costs, their fuels could cost $200/gal.
See http://dotyenergy.com/Markets/Micro-algae.htm for more detailed analysis
of the microalgae mirage.
3. Gasoline from
cyanobacteria.
The propaganda campaign of
Joule Unlimited has made Direct Solar Fuels one of the hottest
topics in the past year. They claim they will produce gasoline
from genetically engineered cyanobacteria at the rate of 15,000
gal/acre/yr. A peer-reviewed paper with some semblance of scientific
objectivity has recently appeared:
http://www.springerlink.com/content/j1414q2u5w25h788/fulltext.html
From this and other materials, it appears reasonable to expect
that highly engineered cyanobacteria could be 70% more efficient
than microalgae. The theoretical
gross solar efficiency limit for bioenergy from cyanobacteria is 12% – the
same as the theoretical limit for bioenergy from microalgae. The theoretical
limit for motor-grade fuels from microalgae products is probably 7%, as there
are losses associated with turning lipids and carbohydrates into motor-grade
fuels. Note that gross solar efficiency is defined as the ratio of the energy
in the fuels to that in the incident solar energy, and it ignores all the other
energy inputs, which thus far have always exceeded the energy in the fuels
produced – often by a factor of 2 to 5. The best reference here is by
Williams and Laurens, 2010,
http://www.rsc.org/delivery/_ArticleLinking/DisplayArticleForFree.cfm?doi=b924978h&JournalCode=EE
.
The promoters of Joule Unlimited continually make numerous outlandish claims
that are simply not supported by any data or valid reasoning. First of all,
they claim that 12% efficiency is 7 times the theoretical limit for microalgae.
This is blatant disinformation. A practical gross solar efficiency has been
in the range of 1-3%, but the losses have much less to do with the nature of
the hydrocarbons produced than with many other factors that will still limit
practical efficiency from cyanobacteria. A few of these cost factors will be
reduced a little by cyanobacteria that can directly produce mostly alkanes
rather than mostly lipids, triglycerides, proteins, polysaccharides, etc. The
problem of separation of the desired products from the culture is also reduced
with cyanobacteria compared to most microalgae approaches – though Algenol’s
approach is similar.
The PBRs needed by Joule Unlimited to get 15% of the gain they are counting
on will probably cost 20% more than those Algenol finds acceptable (where their
fuels are expected to cost $200-400/gge). Thus, if there is a 70% inherent
theoretical advantage for motor-grade fuels from highly engineered cyanobacteria
compared to highly engineered microalgae, plus a (generous) 20% cost savings
associated with reduced harvesting costs, a reasonable estimate is that the
fuels produced by Joule Unlimited could cost $110-180/gge from a $100M facility.
However, it appears their first demonstration may be at about one-third this
scale, so their first fuels will likely be about as expensive as those by Algenol.
4. Fuels from super-concentrated
solar heat.
Solar Driven Thermo-chemical Conversion (STCC) uses highly
concentrated solar energy (much
more concentrated than PowerTower CSP) in attempts to produce
standard liquid fuels (or just hydrogen) from CO2, water, and
sometimes methane. Govern¬ment research support (especially
in Switzerland, Germany, the U.S., and the UK) has grown rapidly
over the past three years, though this is an area that has received
very little public and investor attention. STCC is related to
Windfuels RFTS in that it seeks to produce standard liquid fuels
from CO2 and water via a syngas (CO+H2) route.
Some of the processes are referred to as “dry reforming”, carbo-reduction, “solar
water splitting”, and many more. In fact, we should point out that there
is no standard name, but we refer to all as STCC for convenience.
The best experimental results for STCC thus far have achieved under 2% efficiency
(most have been under 0.1%), at enormous costs (over $50/W), and from apparatus
having very short useful lifetime – often only a few days. Sadly, these
results are as we projected from our theoretical analyses many years ago. Since
we have presented more details on the fundamental challenges facing the various
STCC processes here and in a recent publication here (and since STCC appears
to be falling out of favor), there is no reason to belabor the point here.
We simply note that we believe STCC is much further away from being economically
practical than microalgae – and we made it clear above what we think
about the prospects of microalgae.
We should emphasize that while there are some similarities between the chemistry
of STCC and RFTS, the similarities end there. The economics are worlds apart.
If you have any doubts – just follow the above links to get a better
appreciation for challenges facing STCC.
For comparison, the Windfuels RFTS processes show 45% efficiency will be practical
in a small (2 MW) plant, and 55% efficiency can be expected at 80 MW. Moreover,
the cost of the source energy in Windfuels will be much less because it will
use cheap, off-peak wind energy and thus allow renewables to grow without any
concerns about grid stability. STCC, on the other hand, cannot do anything
to improve grid stability.
5. Inject renewable
hydrogen into CTL plants.
Coal-to-liquids (CTL) plants get the CO (carbon monoxide)
needed in the Fischer
Tropsch (FT) reactor from partial oxidation of coal. Some of
the CO can then be reacted with steam in the water-gas-shift
(WGS) reaction to get the hydrogen also needed in the FT reactor.
Both of these processes (especially the second) also produce
a lot of CO2, which is vented. If renewable hydrogen – as
from wind energy – is used instead of CO followed by WGS,
the total amount of CO2 released is greatly reduced. Not surprisingly,
coal supporters are advocating injecting renewable H2 into CTL
plants to make them sound cleaner.
There are many problems with this concept. The first problem
is that the economics don’t make sense. The biggest part of the cost in CTL is cleanup of the
syngas (the CO + H2) before it goes to the FT reactor. The clean-up process
is still required and just as expensive even if some clean H2 is used during
off-peak hours, but now one also must add the electrolyzers and deal with variable
rates in the WGS reactor and in the partial oxidation reactor. The economics
for using renewable H2 work only if one completely eliminates the expensive
gas cleanup problems – that are responsible for FT’s reputation
of being expensive and not workable at small scale.
6. Wind methanol, DME,
and ammonia.
The company Blue Fuel Energy http://www.bluefuelenergy.com/index.html
, may soon begin a rather
large scale demonstration of methanol production from CO2 and
water using stranded wind energy. This is clearly a much more
competitive and scalable option than any of the options yet mentioned
thus far. They expect to pay about $55/MWh for the energy from
an exceptionally windy ridge.
Some researchers have said that
methanol production can work efficiently with the right catalysts
starting with just CO2 and
H2 in the syngas, but
commercial methanol production processes always begin with a
mixture of CO2+CO+H2 for
the syngas, and (wisely) that is what Blue Fuel Energy plans to use. They will
get the needed CO by sending some of the CO2 and
H2 through an RWGS reactor.
The methanol can then easily be made into dimethyl ether (DME), and the DME
can easily be made into gasoline, though there are efficiency losses of 10-15%
for each step along the way. The company plans to sell all three products – methanol,
DME, and gasoline.
The problem with this plan lies in the economics. Blue Fuel Energy plans to
operate from largely stranded wind – wind with little other market. Our
model for Windfuels, on the other hand, is to operate primarily from off-peak
wind – which is less than one-third as expensive because the wind farms
are largely supported by the high prices they get for their energy during peak-demand
hours.
Many others (most famously, the late Mat Simmons) have advocated making ammonia
from stranded wind energy and air. The process is straight forward, but again
the problem lies in the economics. Ammonia from stranded natural gas is much
cheaper, and will remain cheap for decades. It is true that ammonia could be
used as a motor fuel, but ammonia is much more hazardous and less efficient
than hydrocarbons or ethanol, so ammonia will never be accepted as a motor
fuel. There is a strong and growing need for ammonia for fertilizers, but that
need will be met by natural gas and coal for decades.
Returning to Blue Fuel Energy, we expect they will not make money from carbon-neutral
methanol, as methanol from coal is much cheaper per unit energy than any other
liquid fuel – usually about half as expensive as diesel. Demand
for methanol blending into gasoline will be limited (as that makes the gasoline
more toxic and less suited for hot climates), and there is also not likely
to be much demand for carbon-neutral DME. On this page, we explain its numerous
drawbacks as a motor fuel compared to gasoline, ethanol, diesel, and propane.
We suspect most of their methanol will be converted to gasoline, for which
there is a strong market. The price per energy for jet fuel and diesel is stronger
than for gasoline, but a simple process for efficiently making jet fuel or
diesel from methanol, DME, or gasoline is not known.
7.
RFTS – Make
jet fuel and diesel from off-peak wind.
This is where we started at the top of this page, and we will not repeat those
comments here, but rather go a little further into the technical justification
of RFTS.
One advantage of RFTS is that it is extremely flexible. If market conditions
change, it will be relatively easy to change the primary product emphasis from
jet fuel to gasoline or diesel.
The primary basis for the sentiment against FTS is the perception that it is
capital intensive, and that it cannot be made competitive at small scale – because
there are too many complicated sub-processes. Indeed, that’s what Shell,
BP, Sasol, and other big oil companies would have you believe – because
they don’t want a small company to even think of trying to compete. (But
you probably already know that you can’t believe anything big oil says.)
There has also been considerable sentiment against FTS on the basis that the
reaction products are not highly selected, so more effort is required in the
separations than for methanol synthesis, for example. However, the advances
in our patents now make that a non-issue.
It is important to appreciate how much easier it will be to scale down a Windfuels
plant than a conventional FTS plant making diesel from coal or natural gas.
The biggest factor driving conventional GTL plants toward large scale is that
it has been very expensive to get the high-purity oxygen they need for partial
oxidation in the syngas production at a plant size below 30,000 bbl/day. This,
of course, is not needed in the RFTS plant (we don’t need high purity
oxygen – we produce it). The other major drivers toward large plants
have been the costs of syngas clean-up and product upgrading. Both of these
are now greatly simplified. The CO2 coming into the RFTS plant will be three
orders of magnitude cleaner than coal, and its final cleanup is much simpler
for other reasons too. Elsewhere on this website some of the innovations that
further help are discussed in more detail.
The arguments against biomass to liquids (BTL), as advocated by Enerkem and
Rentech, are even more compelling:
(1) Biomass has half the energy
density of coal, so transportation and initial processing costs
are doubled;
(2) Biomass has more impurities than coal, and of greater unpredictability,
so syngas cleanup costs are 50% greater from biomass than from coal;
(3) BTL plants are always much smaller, because the feedstocks are never
available in sufficient supply for large BTL plants;
(4) The BTL feedstocks are usually much more expensive after the first few
years;
(5) The BTL companies are usually not motivated to make the process competitive – they’re
primarily motivated by the value of the initial PR.
(6) The BTL companies do not have the needed level of technical expertise.
(7) The waste stream from BTL is greater than from CTL.
Of course, when the feedstock is at negative price, as it sometimes
is, BTL should work. But there is only the potential for enough
negative-priced biomass to supply 0.5% of our demand for liquid
fuels.
Returning to RFTS, it is important to emphasize that the FTS
reactor, when properly designed, can be scaled down by more than
four orders of magnitude from typical commercial CTL or GTL sizes
with little effect on cost effectiveness, general design, or
engineering parameters. (The diameter of the tubes used in the
FTS reactor will be the same whether the fuel production is 3
gal/day or 30,000 bbl/day.) The same is true of all the other
major plant components except the waste heat conversion, so efficiency
suffers a little at smaller scale. Still, our detailed simulations
are showing 33% efficiency at the 200 kW size, 45% efficiency
at the 2-MW plant size, 53% at 20 MW, and 58% at 250 MW.
The other major difference
between our approach and that of some other groups advocating “closing
the carbon cycle” (making
fuels from CO2) is
that we have concluded the best routes will all begin by reducing
CO2 to CO in an RWGS
process. Others have said that it would be better to instead
put several decades of
work into developing catalysts that might make it possible to
get the desired level of conversion and selectivity with the
CO2 and H2 sent
directly into an FT reactor. There have been a number of laboratory
experiments suggesting this might eventually
be possible; but if the slow progress over the past decade is
a valid indicator, it is many decades away. The Windfuels
RWGS-FTS process, on the other hand, will work today.
Making an RFTS plant work optimally requires numerous changes compared to a
fossil-diesel FTS plant. Not surprisingly, many of the features disclosed in
detail in the pending Doty patents are somewhat at odds with current trends
in the design of fossil-diesel plants (most notably, the primary separations
processes, waste heat utilization methods, the reactor design, and operating
conditions). However, the bottom-line results from the simulations speak for
themselves. The combination of the various innovations permits a factor of
two increase in efficiency compared to what most have expected, and capital
costs will be less than those for a cellulosic ethanol plant of similar capacity.
--
Key References:
1. S Phillips, A Aden, J Jechura, and D Dayton, “Thermochemical
Ethanol via Indirect Gasification and Mixed Alcohol Synthesis
of Lignocellulosic Biomass”, NREL/TP-510-41168, 2007. http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy07osti/41168.pdf
2. M Xiang, D Li, H Qi, W Li, B Zhong, Y Sun, “Mixed alcohols
synthesis from CO hydrogenation over K-promoted ?-Mo2C catalysts”,
Fuel 86, 1298-1303, 2007.
3. JE Whitlow and C Parrish, “Operation, Modeling and Analysis
of the Reverse Water Gas Shift Process”, 2001 NASA/ASEE
summer program, JFK Space Center, http://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/20020050609_2002079590.pdf
4. PL Spath and DC Dayton, “Preliminary Screening – Technical
and Economic Assessment of Synthesis Gas to Fuels and Chemicals
with Emphasis on the Potential for Biomass-Derived Syngas”,
http://www.fischer-tropsch.org/DOE/DOE_reports/510/510-34929/510-34929.pdf
, NREL/TP-510-34929, 2003.
5. X Li, L Feng, Z Liu, B Zhong, DB Dadyburjor, and DL Kugler, “Higher
Alcohols from Synthesis Gas Using Carbon-Supported Doped Molybdenum-Based
Catalysts”, Ind. Engr. Chem. Res. 37, 3853-3863, 1998.